Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c30…df21 world 71 markets active 5d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day86.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$2
politics 22% −$3
other 21% −$2
sports 15% −$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -2.7% -12.0% 2% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 70 -2.4% -11.7% 1% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 70 -2.4% -11.7% 1% 0% -10.2%
all 70 -2.4% -11.7% 1% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 0% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 69
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day86.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 22¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $34 $0 -1%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 12 $13 $0 -4%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Dum Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Jun 12 $22 $0 -1%
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 Jun 12 $22 −$1 -4%
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Izquierdo Jun 11 $28 $0 -2%
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 11 $17 $0 -1%
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit? Jun 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? Jun 11 $86 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Set 1 Winner: Jovic vs Anisimova Jun 11 $11 $0 -1%
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Hanne Vandewinkel: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $14 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $62 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Jun 11 $9 $0 -2%
Hapoel Holon BC vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 Fren Jun 10 $11 $0 -3%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Kasintseva vs. Lepchenko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 $0 -5%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 67¢ $33 4d
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 67¢ $7 4d
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 67¢ $7 4d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $8 4d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $17 4d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $26 4d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $2 4d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $4 4d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $6 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $23 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $23 4d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $13 4d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes $1 4d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes $1 4d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes $1 4d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes $1 4d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY Yes $1 4d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY Yes $2 4d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $14 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $14 4d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $15 4d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $15 4d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 84¢ $17 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 84¢ $17 4d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $12 4d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 289 history records