Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9C 0x9c38…e679 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$143 (-4%) realized −$35 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,888now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$122
other 13% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -7.3% -16.1% 0% 0% -15.5%
≤30d 4 -7.3% -16.1% 0% 0% -15.5%
≤90d 4 -7.3% -16.1% 0% 0% -15.5%
all 4 -7.3% -16.1% 0% 0% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 0% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 0% -23.6%
15% -31.5% 0% -30.9%
20% -38.2% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$9 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,888
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions25
Markets (closed)4 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $207 $201 −$6 (-3%)
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 35¢ 33¢ $194 $186 −$9 (-5%)
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 34¢ 32¢ $197 $183 −$14 (-7%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 35¢ 33¢ $191 $179 −$12 (-6%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 38¢ 32¢ $210 $177 −$33 (-16%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 40¢ 40¢ $113 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 36¢ 36¢ $109 $110 +$2 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $108 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 39¢ 38¢ $107 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 38¢ $107 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 33¢ 34¢ $99 $104 +$4 (+5%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 34¢ $102 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 36¢ 36¢ $99 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 33¢ 32¢ $99 $96 −$3 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 33¢ 32¢ $99 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Over 31¢ 32¢ $93 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 30¢ $95 $91 −$4 (-5%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 34¢ 33¢ $92 $89 −$3 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $93 $88 −$4 (-5%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 32¢ $90 $88 −$1 (-2%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $85 $81 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $169 −$8 -5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $169 −$8 -5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $87 −$9 -10%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 −$10 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $95 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $111 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 45¢ $73 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $66 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 54¢ $88 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 58¢ $95 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 30¢ $77 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $78 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 32¢ $92 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $95 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $75 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $94 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 59¢ $99 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $70 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $87 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $83 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $195 1h
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $198 1h
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $201 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $211 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $214 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $92 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $94 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $100 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $109 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $93 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $86 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,888.22 · official $2,891.29 (match) · 39 history records