Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c38…9e50 crypto 270 markets active 7h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$314 (-5%) realized −$314 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate55%148W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days−$40
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$351
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -2.7% -11.9% 96% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 57 -3.6% -12.8% 95% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 163 -11.7% -20.1% 61% 25% -14.8%
all 270 -12.4% -20.7% 55% 31% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 31% -13.9%
10% -28.3% 28% -22.1%
15% -35.2% 26% -29.6%
20% -41.6% 26% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$314
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses148 / 122
Open positions0
Markets (closed)270 / 270
History coverage151d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 270 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $38 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $48 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$4 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$22 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $49 −$49 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $49 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $49 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $38 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $48 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 47h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $38 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $41 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $23 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 833 history records