Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:23:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c3a…9935 world 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$151 (+10%) realized +$126 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$107
14 days+$146
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$59
politics 5% +$12
crypto 4% +$68
other 2% −$26
sports 1% +$5
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.5% -8.1% 42% 25% +2.3%
≤30d 44 -6.2% -15.1% 41% 32% -2.2%
≤90d 44 -6.2% -15.1% 41% 32% -2.2%
all 44 -6.2% -15.1% 41% 32% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 32% -2.2%
10% -23.2% 32% -11.6%
15% -30.6% 20% -20.1%
20% -37.4% 18% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)44 / 52
History coverage19d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 53¢ 63¢ $93 $111 +$18 (+20%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 59¢ 70¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+19%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 68¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+20%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 93¢ $22 $30 +$8 (+39%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $7 $2 −$6 (-78%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 35¢ 73¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+109%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 58¢ 5¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $18 −$7 -41%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $16 −$10 -59%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $37 −$10 -26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $50 +$12 +23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $15 −$3 -20%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 16 $8 −$4 -48%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $111 +$11 +10%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $23 −$2 -9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $65 −$11 -17%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $28 −$4 -14%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $54 +$66 +122%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $41 +$40 +98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $139 +$13 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $72 −$13 -18%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -58%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $12 +$17 +140%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $14 +$15 +108%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $30 +$10 +33%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $36 −$23 -62%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? Jun 09 $10 +$11 +108%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $44 +$12 +28%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $8 −$2 -21%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $7 −$6 -76%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $3 +$3 +115%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $9 +$3 +28%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $59 +$68 +114%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $4 +$1 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 −$17 -47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $20 −$17 -84%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 31 $13 −$12 -93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $5 +$3 +56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $9 −$1 -15%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $41 +$10 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 7m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 78¢ $0 35m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $20 37m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 38m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 58m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $24 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 59¢ $36 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 28¢ $25 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $30 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 39¢ $20 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 33¢ $43 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 57¢ $85 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 57¢ $4 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 48¢ $1 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 34¢ $20 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 27¢ $4 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 58¢ $47 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 60¢ $28 9h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 78¢ $2 10h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 74¢ $0 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 17h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 77¢ $1 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.46 · official $224.46 (match) · 343 history records