Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c3c…7067 crypto 1601 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$138 (-2%) realized −$134 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%1481W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$9
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 21% -11.0%
≤30d 80 -9.8% -18.4% 56% 20% -14.8%
≤90d 1371 -2.3% -11.6% 92% 1% -10.9%
all 1600 -2.4% -11.7% 93% 1% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 1% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 1% -19.6%
15% -27.8% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.9% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1481 / 119
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1600 / 1601
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1600 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 22¢ 2¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$4 +669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 08 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.30 (match) · 3500 history records