Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9c3c…f5e2 crypto 397 markets active 1h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$185 (-6%) realized −$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate75%296W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$58
other 4% −$105
culture 1% −$34
tech 1% +$2
sports 0% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.3% -11.6% 77% 15% -8.2%
≤30d 188 -3.8% -13.0% 77% 28% -11.3%
≤90d 226 -2.9% -12.2% 78% 31% -11.1%
all 396 -4.6% -13.7% 75% 31% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 31% -15.6%
10% -22.0% 16% -23.7%
15% -29.5% 8% -31.1%
20% -36.4% 6% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses296 / 100
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)396 / 397
History coverage201d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $67 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +142%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $65 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$4 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $62 +$8 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $60 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +174%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -84%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $41 −$21 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $21 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 31? May 31 $18 +$2 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 97¢ $70 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $69 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $68 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $67 30h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? SELL No 2¢ $0 40h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? BUY No 33¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $67 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 3¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 14¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $65 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL Yes 93¢ $70 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 81¢ $62 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $60 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $61 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $60 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $3 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $60 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $54 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.76 · official $69.76 (match) · 1089 history records