Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9C 0x9c3c…e8c9 sports 187 markets active 7h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,342 (+1%) realized +$5,740 · open −$398
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%87W / 93L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,954per market
Trades / day92.5pace
Fees−$8,491est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25,673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26,100
7 days+$21,959
14 days+$5,502
30 days+$3,906
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,511
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +36.5% +23.5% 54% 54% -3.2%
≤30d 180 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 48% -9.0%
≤90d 180 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 48% -9.0%
all 180 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 48% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 48% -9.0%
10% -13.3% 47% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -21.7% 46% -25.6%
20% -29.3% 44% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,911 vs −$2,681 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$25,673
Realized+$5,740
Unrealized−$398
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses87 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$8,491
Open positions7
Markets (closed)180 / 187
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2,954
Trades / day92.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 52¢ $5,000 $5,909 +$909 (+18%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) New York Mets 56¢ 56¢ $5,000 $4,955 −$45 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 38¢ 38¢ $4,958 $4,934 −$24 (-0%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) New York Mets 67¢ 66¢ $4,362 $4,269 −$93 (-2%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Over 59¢ 50¢ $3,654 $3,097 −$557 (-15%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 60¢ 76¢ $1,240 $1,580 +$341 (+27%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 48¢ 24¢ $1,858 $929 −$929 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 22 $5,000 +$4,804 +96%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 Jun 21 $5,000 +$4,807 +96%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $5,084 +$6,280 +124%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $5,008 +$5,630 +112%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $5,060 +$3,273 +65%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $5,079 +$5,559 +109%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $4,932 +$3,265 +66%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $5,070 +$4,363 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $9,993 −$9,990 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $4,912 +$9,601 +195%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $1,504 −$1,493 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $5,084 −$5,000 -98%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 20 $5,000 +$5,562 +111%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $2,284 +$2,087 +91%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 20 $5,000 +$5,638 +113%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 20 $5,049 +$3,723 +74%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $5,052 +$6,853 +136%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 Jun 20 $4,178 +$3,703 +89%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $5,000 +$5,870 +117%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $5,062 +$3,493 +69%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $1,471 +$1,727 +117%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 19 $5,097 −$5,000 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $4,960 +$3,968 +80%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $4,989 +$4,815 +96%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 19 $2,648 +$2,231 +84%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $5,079 +$5,559 +109%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $5,000 +$3,333 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $5,000 +$5,000 +100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $4,622 −$4,589 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $5,000 +$5,018 +100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 18 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 18 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $5,000 +$3,475 +70%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $5,059 −$5,000 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $5,076 −$5,000 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $4,994 −$4,930 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 169.5 Jun 18 $5,015 +$4,419 +88%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 18 $2,768 −$2,768 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5,076 −$5,000 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5,033 −$4,967 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5,076 −$5,000 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-8.5) Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $5,000 +$769 +15%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 17 $5,006 −$5,000 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 17 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 56¢ $5,066 7h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Washington Mystics 51¢ $5,000 8h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3,690 9h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 51¢ $43 9h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 51¢ $34 9h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 51¢ $43 9h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 51¢ $357 9h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 51¢ $821 9h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 45¢ $12 10h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 47¢ $4,502 11h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 47¢ $506 11h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $3,722 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $6 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $3 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $311 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $311 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $5 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $7 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $72 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $13 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $4 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $3 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $55 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $28 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $3 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $15 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $1 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $3 12h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $13 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,673.38 · official $25,673.27 (match) · 2440 history records