Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c3f…f55f weather 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%105W / 6L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$14
politics 2% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 49 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 101 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 111 +0.2% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×69.87 per $1 lost it wins $69.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses105 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage120d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $278 $278 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $340 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $312 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $339 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $185 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 16 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $252 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $339 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $339 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $244 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 10 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $339 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $327 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $233 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $229 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $334 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 03 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $190 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $149 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 1? Jun 02 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $192 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 31? Jun 01 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $190 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 30? May 31 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 30? May 31 $268 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $320 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 28? May 29 $330 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on May 27? May 28 $331 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $278 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $65 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $340 15h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $312 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $339 4d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $185 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $160 5d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $252 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $89 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $339 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $339 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $31 9d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $244 10d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $96 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $79 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $169 11d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $174 11d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $168 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $337 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $339 13d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $327 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $109 15d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $233 15d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $105 15d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or below on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $229 16d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $109 16d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $334 17d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $150 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.57 · official $342.57 (match) · 224 history records