Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c40…048b world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate54%25W / 21L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$8
other 26% +$2
politics 10% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 47% 6% -8.3%
≤90d 24 +0.2% -9.4% 46% 4% -8.6%
all 46 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -8.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -17.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage471d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $55 +$1 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $13 −$2 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $23 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $24 −$5 -21%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $2 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $111 +$2 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $47 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $42 +$3 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $44 +$7 +16%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $43 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $12 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $91 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $17 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $16 +$1 +4%
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 8? Mar 11 $16 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $56 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $55 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $40 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $40 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 19h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $52 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $8 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $39 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $4 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $32 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $22 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $7 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $24 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $28 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records