Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:05:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9C 0x9c41…0320 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$32 (-35%) realized −$32 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip

Net edge-53%after slip

Net WR13%break-even

Win rate17%4W / 19L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day43.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit87%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +13%

net ROI/market (all)-44.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-38.9%	-44.7%	17%	13%	-43.2%
≤30d	23	-38.9%	-44.7%	17%	13%	-43.2%
≤90d	23	-38.9%	-44.7%	17%	13%	-43.2%
all	23	-38.9%	-44.7%	17%	13%	-43.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover43.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-44.7%	13%	-43.2%
10% ← realistic here	-50.0%	13%	-48.7%
15%	-54.8%	13%	-53.6%
20%	-59.2%	13%	-58.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -39% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -71% → late -9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.3 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$32

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses4 / 19

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 23

History coverage1d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day43.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 16	$8	+$7	+84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Jun 16	$6	−$4	-67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$1	-30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Jun 16	$8	−$5	-57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 15	$4	$0	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$4	+374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 15	$4	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 15	$3	−$2	-67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 15	$6	−$3	-54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 15	$4	+$3	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 15	$4	−$2	-45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 15	$6	−$3	-44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Jun 15	$6	−$4	-64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$2	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$2	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$2	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$2	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$1	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$1	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$2	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$2	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$2	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$2	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$2	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$2	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$2	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$2	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$2	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records