Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c41…1ff1 other 43 markets active 1d ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate19%8W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% $0
other 32% $0
sports 12% −$11
politics 8% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +13.8% +3.0% 21% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 16 +10.3% -0.2% 19% 6% -11.7%
all 43 +4.5% -5.4% 19% 5% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 5% -10.5%
10% -14.5% 5% -19.1%
15% -22.8% 2% -26.9%
20% -30.3% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses8 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage260d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $52 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 24 $40 −$11 -29%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $76 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $27 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $28 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $2 +$1 +31%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 05 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $24 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $52 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $52 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $52 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $35 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $5 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $36 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $1 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $42 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $43 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.36 · official $0.00 (match) · 278 history records