Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:18:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c44…e517 politics 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%3W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$2
other 17% −$1
sports 17% +$2
crypto 10% $0
economics 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.5%
all 23 -0.0% -9.5% 13% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses3 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage176d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 23 $107 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 29 $107 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $213 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $106 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $433 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $216 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 14 $216 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $216 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $426 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? Feb 24 $217 $0 +0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 30 $210 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 04 $207 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 03 $211 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $210 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $211 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $107 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $107 14h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $107 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $107 4d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 10d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $107 24d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $107 25d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $107 33d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $107 34d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $107 38d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $105 38d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $105 40d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $106 40d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $106 43d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $106 44d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $106 50d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $106 51d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $107 66d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $107 66d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $107 68d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $107 68d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $216 89d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $216 89d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 95d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 95d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 98d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $216 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $216 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records