Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c47…ba45 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$1
other 17% −$1
crypto 5% −$2
politics 4% +$2
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 22 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 23 -4.6% -13.7% 26% 4% -9.7%
all 40 -6.9% -15.8% 45% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 2% -9.8%
10% -23.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage470d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $32 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $63 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $9 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $24 +$3 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $31 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $29 −$3 -10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $30 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $22 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $32 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $2 $0 +4%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 18 $3 −$2 -83%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 05 $3 $0 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Apr 01 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 38h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 40h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $30 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $30 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $29 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $27 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.73 · official $33.73 (match) · 128 history records