Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c48…a27e other 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 226L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$32
sports 24% −$22
economics 8% −$5
politics 7% −$5
culture 7% −$6
crypto 6% +$1
world 5% −$5
tech 2% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 1% -9.6%
all 241 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)241 / 241
History coverage127d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 241 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $431 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $274 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $182 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $272 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $354 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $783 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $219 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $201 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $252 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $171 $0 +0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $217 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $537 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $151 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $218 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $208 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $299 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $415 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $104 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $580 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $155 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $309 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $128 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $719 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $207 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $230 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $403 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 51m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 12h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 14h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 15h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 17h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 18h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 19h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 22h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 24h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 25h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 27h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 28h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 31h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 33h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 37h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 38h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $58 40h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $59 42h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 43h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 44h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 46h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1314 history records