trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 40% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 16 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 25% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 25% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 24 | +2.4% | -7.3% | 42% | 4% | -7.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.3% | 4% | -7.7% |
| 10% | -16.2% | 4% | -16.5% |
| 15% | -24.3% | 4% | -24.6% |
| 20% | -31.7% | 4% | -32.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $36 | $36 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 19 | $45 | −$1 | -1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 03 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $61 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 02 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 02 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 30 | $43 | +$1 | +1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 29 | $93 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 29 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 28 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 27 | $4 | −$1 | -18% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? | Jun 21 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 04 | $30 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 30 | $31 | $0 | -1% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Mar 26 | $31 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb | Mar 21 | $17 | +$14 | +79% |