Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c4f…0b9e other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,493 (+21%) realized +$2,855 · open −$362
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 39L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$2,348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$259
7 days+$1,890
14 days+$2,335
30 days+$2,235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$1,376
sports 29% +$779
politics 5% +$17
world 1% −$150
crypto 1% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +7.2% -3.0% 46% 46% +19.0%
≤30d 72 +1.8% -7.9% 46% 46% +12.4%
≤90d 72 +1.8% -7.9% 46% 46% +12.4%
all 72 +1.8% -7.9% 46% 46% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 46% +12.4%
10% -16.7% 43% +1.6%
15% -24.8% 33% -8.2%
20% -32.2% 29% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$83 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$2,348
Realized+$2,855
Unrealized−$362
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 39
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions9
Markets (closed)72 / 83
History coverage15d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $300 $478 +$178 (+59%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $300 $375 +$75 (+25%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $300 $242 −$58 (-19%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 27¢ 2¢ $150 $8 −$142 (-94%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 64¢ 1¢ $300 $3 −$297 (-99%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $502 +$60 +12%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $151 +$46 +31%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 21 $21 −$21 -99%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $26 −$21 -82%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $172 +$79 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $172 +$102 +60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $21 +$113 +550%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 +$58 +114%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $151 +$52 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 +$26 +26%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 19 $26 +$131 +510%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 19 $264 +$289 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $205 +$1,128 +550%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$26 -25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $294 −$290 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $254 −$250 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 +$69 +34%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$59 +146%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $354 +$220 +62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $358 +$1,100 +307%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $102 +$111 +109%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $253 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $10 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $102 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $303 4h
Nico Williams: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5h
Nico Williams: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $11 5h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 7h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $151 12h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $15 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $151 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $172 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 46h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 46h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $51 46h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $151 46h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $102 46h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $101 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,347.75 · official $2,370.16 (match) · 132 history records