Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c51…3db6 other 122 markets active 9h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%48W / 71L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$8
14 days−$5
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$8
politics 24% −$7
sports 17% +$3
other 14% +$15
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +64.0% +48.4% 67% 33% -8.6%
≤30d 26 +13.5% +2.7% 35% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 34 +10.1% -0.4% 32% 6% -9.5%
all 119 +3.8% -6.1% 40% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 4% -9.4%
10% -15.1% 3% -18.0%
15% -23.3% 3% -26.0%
20% -30.8% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses48 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)119 / 122
History coverage465d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 75¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+375%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $449 +$2 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $154 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $25 +$7 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $72 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $152 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $437 −$12 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $160 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $750 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $301 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $146 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $138 +$1 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $145 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $151 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $410 +$27 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $6 $0 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $428 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $19 −$3 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $146 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $145 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $3 $0 -14%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $160 −$4 -2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $264 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $976 +$5 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $989 −$14 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $902 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $104 −$7 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $232 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $996 +$3 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $55 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 11 $8 +$16 +186%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 20 $2 +$2 +111%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $18 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $4 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $9 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $108 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $51 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $26 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $132 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $52 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $54 39h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 46h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $31 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $9 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $11 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $6 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $162 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $8 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $167 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $125 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $42 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $168 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $40 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $79 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $114 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $152 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $123 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $36 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $87 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.41 · official $0.00 · 432 history records