Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9C 0x9c53…31ad world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$28
politics 25% −$40
other 15% +$23
sports 2% −$2
weather 0% −$3
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 29 +7.5% -2.7% 34% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 46 +50.8% +36.4% 48% 11% -8.9%
all 69 +29.0% +16.7% 43% 17% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 17% -9.4%
10% +5.5% 17% -18.0%
15% -4.7% 12% -25.9%
20% -14.0% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage535d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes $3 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 58¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $64 −$1 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $75 −$2 -2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $63 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $63 +$2 +3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $82 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $124 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $129 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $62 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $62 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $59 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $45 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $195 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $6 −$1 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $55 +$5 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $51 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $54 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $22 +$6 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $43 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $22 +$4 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2 +$1 +77%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $57 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $6 $0 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $228 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 01 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $229 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $229 $0 +0%
Holy Cross vs. Colgate Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
George Washington vs. Loyola Chicago Feb 26 $5 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Knicks Feb 25 $6 $0 -4%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $3 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $0 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $63 15h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $39 17h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $25 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $29 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $12 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $13 36h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $14 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $24 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $26 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $63 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $65 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $63 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $16 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.89 · official $2.68 (match) · 301 history records