Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c53…dad6 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate48%23W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$3
other 9% $0
finance 2% $0
sports 1% +$10
politics 1% −$1
weather 1% −$6
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.9% -11.3% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 27 -0.0% -9.6% 37% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 35 -0.5% -10.0% 43% 0% -9.2%
all 48 +0.4% -9.2% 48% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses23 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage491d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $45 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $4 $0 -10%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $33 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $34 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $7 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $68 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $161 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $110 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $182 +$4 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $32 +$3 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $31 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $31 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $2 $0 -21%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $68 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $362 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $29 +$1 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 11 $286 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? May 06 $2 $0 +5%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 21 $1 $0 -16%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump say 'ceasefire' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $14 −$4 -31%
Kings vs. Nuggets Mar 05 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 5? Mar 05 $21 −$6 -30%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? Mar 05 $22 −$1 -3%
Towson vs. Elon Mar 04 $10 +$10 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $36 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 34h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $9 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $16 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $23 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $10 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $18 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $16 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $36 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $36 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $37 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $8 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $26 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $33 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.91 · official $35.91 (match) · 186 history records