Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9C 0x9c55…c532 sports 38 markets active 11h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$16,674 (+10%) realized +$16,746 · open −$72
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$4,336per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,082
7 days+$2,068
14 days+$4,256
30 days+$4,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$15,433
sports 6% +$986
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +16.6% +5.5% 60% 60% +12.0%
≤30d 32 +31.8% +19.3% 59% 59% +20.8%
≤90d 32 +31.8% +19.3% 59% 59% +20.8%
all 35 +23.7% +11.9% 57% 54% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.9% 54% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here +1.2% 54% -9.9%
15% -8.6% 54% -18.6%
20% -17.6% 51% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$525) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +50% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,100 vs −$367 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.0 per $1 lost it wins $4.0
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$899
Realized+$16,746
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage596d
Avg bet$4,336
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $366 $369 +$3 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $340 $342 +$2 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 38¢ $265 $188 −$78 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $310 −$306 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$166 +55%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $303 +$180 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $455 +$238 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $152 +$102 +67%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $304 +$284 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $355 +$270 +76%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $152 +$148 +97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $304 +$196 +65%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $257 −$253 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $317 −$312 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $356 −$352 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $317 +$333 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $376 −$369 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $530 −$525 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $414 −$408 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $512 +$538 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $274 +$276 +101%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $414 −$185 -45%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $316 +$284 +90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $477 +$723 +152%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $617 +$383 +62%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $398 −$392 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $551 +$1,249 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $552 −$540 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $836 +$364 +44%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $364 −$355 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $215 +$1,285 +596%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $515 −$506 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $911 +$959 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $619 +$981 +158%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $150,000 +$13,031 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 02 $570 −$570 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $269 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $310 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $370 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $152 35h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $303 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $455 35h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $203 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $304 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $355 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $152 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $304 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $257 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $317 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $356 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $376 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $106 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $414 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $424 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $317 4d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 69¢ $222 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $274 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $316 5d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $414 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 48¢ $512 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $398 6d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $617 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $477 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $551 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $898.99 · official $913.99 · 63 history records