Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c5c…402d world 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$1
other 23% −$1
politics 11% $0
finance 6% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 8% -9.6%
all 23 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage450d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $65 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $35 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $43 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $39 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $11 +$2 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $23 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 08 $23 $0 -1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $22 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 31 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $2 6h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $11 6h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $13 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $16 14h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $20 14h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $16 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $20 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $6 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $31 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $36 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $13 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $21 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $42 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $43 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $7 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $7 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $5 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.56 · official $39.56 (match) · 70 history records