Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c5c…2162 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$2
other 29% +$2
politics 13% +$3
crypto 10% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -2.4% -11.7% 42% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -2.1% -11.4% 46% 0% -9.6%
all 51 -1.1% -10.5% 37% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 2% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage308d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+2%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $43 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $44 −$2 -4%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $29 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $47 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $52 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $7 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $2 −$1 -28%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $45 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Feb 01 $7 $0 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jan 31 $11 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $5 $0 +4%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $16 +$11 +64%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Aug 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–314 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $3 $0 -14%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 24 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 22 $4 $0 +2%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 21 $1 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 21 $43 $0 +1%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Aug 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 20 $35 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $14 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $29 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $42 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $31 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $3 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $43 19h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $42 47h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $34 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $45 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $43 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $21 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $29 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $8 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $6 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $14 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $45 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $25 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $19 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $20 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $24 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.49 · official $26.32 · 186 history records