trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +3.7% | -6.2% | 100% | 0% | -5.9% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +3.7% | -6.2% | 100% | 0% | -5.9% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +3.7% | -6.2% | 100% | 0% | -5.9% |
| all | 20 | -9.0% | -17.7% | 80% | 15% | -23.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.7% | 15% | -23.8% |
| 10% | -25.5% | 10% | -31.1% |
| 15% | -32.7% | 10% | -37.8% |
| 20% | -39.3% | 0% | -43.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $28 | $28 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $22 | $22 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 93¢ | $19 | $19 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? | No | 90¢ | 88¢ | $9 | $9 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 86¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 81¢ | 80¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 18? | Jun 16 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Jun 16 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Jun 16 | $24 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will Solana reach $130 in March? | Jun 16 | $28 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Jun 16 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Mar 17 | $1,008 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Mar 17 | $357 | +$3 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? | Mar 16 | $1,003 | +$1 | +0% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10? | Mar 10 | $1,042 | −$1,042 | -100% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Mar 02 | $440 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Mar 02 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? | Feb 28 | $35 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Jan 05 | $63 | +$1 | +2% |
| Maduro mugshot released by Monday? | Jan 05 | $261 | +$6 | +2% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) opening price Up or Down on January 5? | Jan 05 | $209 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? | Dec 28 | $190 | −$190 | -100% |
| Will Torino FC vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? | Dec 28 | $135 | +$52 | +39% |
| Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Torino FC end in a draw? | Dec 22 | $90 | +$39 | +43% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? | Nov 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Warriors | Nov 25 | $1,151 | +$157 | +14% |