Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9C 0x9c60…f6b3 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$66 (+7%) realized +$94 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$64
14 days+$93
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$101
crypto 19% $0
other 18% +$1
tech 10% −$40
finance 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 45% +1.8%
≤30d 22 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 45% +2.2%
≤90d 22 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 45% +2.2%
all 22 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 45% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 45% +2.2%
10% -18.4% 32% -7.6%
15% -26.3% 32% -16.5%
20% -33.5% 32% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$16 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$94
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage10d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $90 $63 −$28 (-31%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? No 72¢ 72¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $50 +$3 +6%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $100 +$4 +4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 +$2 +21%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$6 +56%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$1 -7%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $62 +$52 +84%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$24 +231%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $20 −$12 -60%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 +$2 +13%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 15 $153 +$26 +17%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $50 2h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? SELL No 71¢ $8 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 18h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $20 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 24¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $8 3d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 48¢ $12 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 57¢ $16 3d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 30¢ $10 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $10 3d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? SELL No 65¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? SELL No 59¢ $22 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $42 4d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? BUY No 60¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) SELL Norway $3 5d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 41¢ $17 5d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) SELL Norway 19¢ $5 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.99 · official $70.99 (match) · 61 history records