Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c61…5f42 other 165 markets active 10d ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$26,901 (+5%) realized +$26,901 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate57%96W / 71L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$3,104per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$473est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$913
7 days−$913
14 days−$1,356
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$26,380
sports 14% −$3,184
crypto 0% −$10
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 42 -16.6% -24.6% 67% 19% -8.1%
≤90d 128 +27.0% +14.9% 59% 29% -6.1%
all 167 +18.0% +6.8% 57% 31% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 31% -5.9%
10% -3.4% 19% -14.9%
15% ← realistic here -12.8% 13% -23.1%
20% -21.3% 10% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$3,653) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$851 vs −$837 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26,901
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses96 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$473
Open positions0
Markets (closed)167 / 165
History coverage98d
Avg bet$3,104
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 167 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views on day 6? Jun 29 $249 −$456 -183%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 64 million views on day 6 Jun 29 $249 −$456 -183%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 20 $99 +$5 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 19 $776 −$724 -93%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 18 $258 +$77 +30%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 18 $210 −$210 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $321 −$164 -51%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $60 −$14 -23%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? Jun 16 $14 −$11 -82%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $173 +$147 +85%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $454 +$501 +110%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $58 −$50 -86%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $1,499 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 11 $1,686 +$5 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 128 billion views by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 06 $129 −$129 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 06 $2,501 +$240 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $4,655 +$478 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 06 $94 +$25 +27%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 06 $8 +$3 +39%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 63.5 million views in wee Jun 06 $291 −$274 -94%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $4,068 +$3,226 +79%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 6? Jun 05 $1,248 −$248 -20%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $1,488 −$1,477 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $202 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get 61 million or more views on day 5? Jun 04 $404 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $1,167 +$2 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $2,907 +$9 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 57 million views on day 5? Jun 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 59 and 60 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $3,166 +$59 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $503 +$4 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $331 +$11 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 52 million views on day 4? Jun 03 $3,294 +$10 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get 56 million or more views on day 4? Jun 03 $2,266 +$44 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $512 +$19 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $2,385 +$7 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Jun 02 $3,230 +$72 +2%
between 39 and 41 million views Jun 01 $66 −$62 -94%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 01 $2,392 +$9 +0%
Will Bhuvneshwar Kumar win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 31 $5 +$4 +94%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $799 −$775 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $1,156 +$178 +15%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 27 $170 −$260 -153%
Will MrBeast's video get less than 66 million views on week 1? May 23 $248 +$50 +20%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 23 $2,626 −$2,540 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 May 22 $3,050 +$485 +16%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 May 22 $2,578 +$479 +19%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 22 $49 −$48 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 65 and 66 million views on day 6 May 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 66 million or more views on day 6? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 6¢ $23 9d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 2¢ $29 9d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 1¢ $6 10d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 98¢ $335 10d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 75¢ $258 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 6¢ $147 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 5¢ $21 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 4¢ $41 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 48¢ $182 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 48¢ $34 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 48¢ $85 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 48¢ $36 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 48¢ $10 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 48¢ $18 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 48¢ $25 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 48¢ $15 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 48¢ $76 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 58¢ $232 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 58¢ $48 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 58¢ $10 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 SELL Yes 15¢ $31 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 SELL Yes 10¢ $126 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 SELL Yes 41¢ $21 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 SELL Yes 41¢ $2 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 SELL Yes 41¢ $15 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 29¢ $4 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 SELL Yes 67¢ $1 12d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 13d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 68¢ $55 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2752 history records