Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9c62…04a6 sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized +$5 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$5
other 37% −$13
world 1% $0
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +5.1% -4.9% 33% 29% -11.4%
≤30d 48 +5.1% -4.9% 33% 29% -11.4%
≤90d 48 +5.1% -4.9% 33% 29% -11.4%
all 48 +5.1% -4.9% 33% 29% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 29% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 25% -19.9%
15% -22.3% 23% -27.6%
20% -29.9% 19% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)48 / 65
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 24¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 42¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+246%)
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Eduardo Ribeiro 64¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Celia Anson Sanchez 26¢ 52¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 55¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Maks Kasnikowski 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Naoki Nakagawa 62¢ 61¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu Jia-Jing Lu 54¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu Wushuang Zheng 48¢ 47¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Leo Vithoontien 41¢ 39¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Belle Thompson 76¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 46¢ 29¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +307%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$7 -76%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -58%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $3 −$1 -19%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $3 −$1 -21%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +441%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$6 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +275%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +595%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +249%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien BUY Leo Vithoontien 41¢ $1 1h
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien BUY Naoki Nakagawa 62¢ $1 1h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Celia Anson Sanchez 26¢ $1 1h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 76¢ $1 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Wushuang Zheng 48¢ $1 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Jia-Jing Lu 54¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Eduardo Ribeiro 64¢ $2 1h
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 38¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 37¢ $1 3h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 46¢ $1 4h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 55¢ $1 4h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris SELL Billy Harris 98¢ $22 4h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 24¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 76¢ $1 4h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 50¢ $1 4h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 51¢ $1 4h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 89¢ $20 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 5h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Maks Kasnikowski 87¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.58 · official $25.58 (match) · 147 history records