Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9c63…5f5d crypto 60 markets active 22h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$96 (-11%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%27W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$89
crypto 31% −$39
sports 2% +$14
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.2% -9.4% 44% 37% -21.2%
≤30d 27 +0.2% -9.4% 44% 37% -21.2%
≤90d 60 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 37% -21.6%
all 60 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 37% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 37% -21.6%
10% -26.9% 30% -29.1%
15% -34.0% 30% -35.9%
20% -40.4% 25% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses27 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage44d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 +$11 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 +$21 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $135 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Worker" in Des Moines? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$44 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$8 +388%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 08 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 07 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 06 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 06 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 05 $2 +$5 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5? May 05 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 05 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 12PM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 05 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $8 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 36h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $10 36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $131 37h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $135 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $71 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 28¢ $1 4d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records