Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c64…0861 other 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$92 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 247L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$40
sports 25% −$23
politics 8% −$16
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$6
crypto 6% −$5
world 5% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 189 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 263 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)263 / 264
History coverage138d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $286 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $386 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $315 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $397 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $506 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $240 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $463 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $638 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $121 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $295 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $345 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $226 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $282 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $298 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $176 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $124 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $111 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $212 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 4h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 6h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 8h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $46 9h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 11h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 11h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 12h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 17h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 18h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 21h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 23h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $47 24h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $47 25h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 27h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 29h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $47 30h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 31h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 37h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 39h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 39h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 40h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $47 42h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 44h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $47 46h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $47 47h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.92 · official $45.92 (match) · 1489 history records