Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c66…7017 weather 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$489 (+2%) realized +$467 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate90%56W / 6L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$434per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,540now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$380
7 days+$433
14 days+$656
30 days+$656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$678
economics 2% −$132
world 0% −$4
politics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +2.3% -7.5% 94% 6% -7.6%
≤30d 58 +3.0% -6.8% 97% 3% -7.2%
≤90d 59 +2.9% -6.9% 95% 3% -7.2%
all 62 -1.0% -10.4% 90% 3% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -7.9%
10% -19.0% 0% -16.7%
15% -26.8% 0% -24.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$603) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$149 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$1,540
Realized+$467
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses56 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage282d
Avg bet$434
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? No 96¢ 98¢ $1,162 $1,180 +$18 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? No 98¢ 99¢ $357 $360 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1,009 +$61 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $1,167 −$578 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1,134 +$34 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1,034 +$58 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? Jun 22 $504 +$27 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $503 +$17 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1,081 +$48 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $240 −$132 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $155 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1,017 +$91 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $828 +$42 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $830 +$64 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $109 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $750 +$68 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,011 +$72 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,394 +$164 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $197 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $755 +$39 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $707 +$50 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $602 +$38 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $795 +$65 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $69 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $382 +$21 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $370 +$23 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $511 +$19 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $492 +$15 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $603 +$21 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $891 +$47 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $343 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $476 +$15 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $255 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $208 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $462 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $270 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $568 +$19 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $309 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $448 +$20 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $305 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $488 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $152 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $485 +$19 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $146 +$4 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $76 16m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $33 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $248 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $11 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $488 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $592 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $19 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $19 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $28 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $30 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $11 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $18 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $18 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $13 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $50 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $102 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $15 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $102 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,540.14 · official $1,540.14 (match) · 605 history records