Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9C 0x9c66…21eb other 4 markets active 3h ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,959 (+31%) realized +$3,574 · open −$615
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$2,403per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$2,135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$3,442
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -16.3% -24.3% 0% 0% -24.3%
≤30d 2 +61.8% +46.4% 50% 50% +80.7%
≤90d 2 +61.8% +46.4% 50% 50% +80.7%
all 2 +61.8% +46.4% 50% 50% +80.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.4% 50% +80.7%
10% ← realistic here +32.4% 50% +63.4%
15% +19.6% 50% +47.6%
20% +7.9% 50% +33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,227 vs −$170 · ×24.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×24.82 per $1 lost it wins $24.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$2,135
Realized+$3,574
Unrealized−$615
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage88d
Avg bet$2,403
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1,709 $1,160 −$549 (-32%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,040 $975 −$65 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 24 $1,046 −$170 -16%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 30 $3,021 +$4,227 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 17¢ $906 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $606 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $297 2h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 12¢ $876 6h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $867 6h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,046 12d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $148 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $60 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $444 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $408 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 24d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 20¢ $957 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $34 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $149 24d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $1,901 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $659 24d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $667 24d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $1,914 25d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $2,766 28d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 36d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 36d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $143 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,134.97 · official $2,134.97 (match) · 55 history records