Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c66…677e sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$233 (+3%) realized +$233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate100%13W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$506per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$212
7 days+$212
14 days+$213
30 days+$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$12
other 33% +$214
crypto 15% +$1
politics 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +39.6% +26.3% 100% 100% +26.3%
≤30d 4 +10.1% -0.4% 100% 25% -0.3%
≤90d 13 +3.3% -6.5% 100% 8% -6.3%
all 13 +3.3% -6.5% 100% 8% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 8% -6.3%
10% -15.5% 8% -15.2%
15% -23.6% 8% -23.4%
20% -31.1% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$749
Realized+$233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses13 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage93d
Avg bet$506
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $749 $749 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $536 +$212 +40%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $535 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 31 $520 +$3 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $530 +$1 +0%
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun May 10 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec May 09 $230 $0 +0%
Will Arvell Reese be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Apr 28 $531 +$1 +0%
Will Justin Bieber feature Bad Bunny during his Coachella performances Apr 21 $530 +$1 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $528 +$3 +0%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies Apr 03 $527 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $527 +$1 +0%
76ers vs. Jazz Mar 23 $521 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on March 20? Mar 21 $521 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $749 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $536 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $535 11d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 99¢ $520 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 100¢ $530 26d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec BUY No 100¢ $230 43d
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun BUY No 100¢ $300 43d
Will Arvell Reese be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $531 56d
Will Justin Bieber feature Bad Bunny during his Coachella performances BUY No 100¢ $530 63d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 99¢ $528 70d
Knicks vs. Grizzlies BUY Knicks 100¢ $527 77d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $527 86d
76ers vs. Jazz BUY 76ers 99¢ $521 88d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $521 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $749.37 · official $749.37 (match) · 28 history records