Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9C 0x9c6a…150d other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$411per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$9
other 29% −$3
sports 13% −$2
economics 10% −$2
culture 8% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$696) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage87d
Avg bet$411
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 28 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 28 $79 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 28 $1,098 −$2 -0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the e May 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 May 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $23 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $2,002 −$5 -0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $683 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 15 $696 −$2 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 15 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close May 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $706 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $706 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 09 $152 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 06 $111 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after th Apr 02 $136 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 02 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $1,029 35m
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 41m
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 57m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $986 1h
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,053 1h
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,043 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $787 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $12 2h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $309 2h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 2h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,098 2h
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the e SELL No 99¢ $56 40d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $35 40d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the e BUY No 100¢ $43 40d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $12 40d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $9 40d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the e BUY No 100¢ $13 40d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $24 40d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $13 40d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $23 40d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $668 42d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 42d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 42d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $624 42d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 42d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 42d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $29 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records