Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9C 0x9c75…ad0b other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$3
politics 24% +$2
crypto 19% −$54
finance 12% +$26
sports 4% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +28.0% +15.8% 100% 100% +15.8%
≤30d 1 +28.0% +15.8% 100% 100% +15.8%
≤90d 2 +35.5% +22.6% 100% 100% +19.5%
all 9 -12.6% -20.9% 44% 33% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 33% -10.8%
10% -28.5% 22% -19.3%
15% -35.4% 11% -27.1%
20% -41.7% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage206d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 80¢ 86¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $94 +$26 +28%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Apr 24 $35 +$15 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Feb 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 28 $41 −$41 -100%
X banned in U.K. by March 31? Feb 05 $96 $0 -0%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 03 $192 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 02 $91 +$2 +2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $98 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - December 12, 10PM ET Jan 03 $88 +$12 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $120 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $40 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $9 61d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $51 61d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $26 61d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $8 61d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 70¢ $35 117d
X banned in U.K. by March 31? SELL No 95¢ $95 139d
X banned in U.K. by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $96 140d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $192 142d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $192 142d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $93 142d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 49¢ $15 163d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 49¢ $2 163d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 49¢ $24 163d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 49¢ $5 163d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 49¢ $4 163d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 49¢ $1 163d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 49¢ $5 163d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 49¢ $4 163d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 49¢ $37 163d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 49¢ $98 164d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 89¢ $91 172d
Solana Up or Down - December 12, 10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $88 194d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 202d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 202d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 205d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 205d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.00 · official $43.00 (match) · 60 history records