Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

9C 0x9c7a…d125 world 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$447 (-12%) realized −$467 · open +$20

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip

Net edge-54%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%1W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$426per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit89%portable

Net worth$3,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 168d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-53.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	7	-49.1%	-53.9%	14%	14%	-61.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-53.9%	14%	-61.8%
10%	-58.3%	14%	-65.5%
15%	-62.4%	14%	-68.8%
20%	-66.1%	14%	-71.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -49% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$215 vs −$104 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.34 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage

Net worth$3,060

Realized−$467

Unrealized+$20

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses1 / 6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)7 / 9

History coverage168d

Avg bet$426

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$3,000	$3,026	+$26 (+1%)
US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026?	Yes	30¢	25¢	$40	$34	−$6 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Mar 01	$84	+$215	+256%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Jan 26	$6	−$6	-100%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?	Jan 26	$70	−$70	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?	Jan 08	$33	−$33	-100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Jan 08	$40	−$40	-100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	Jan 08	$303	−$303	-100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026?	Jan 08	$175	−$175	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$3,085	2h
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL Yes	100¢	$299	115d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	1¢	$6	150d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY Yes	28¢	$84	150d
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?	BUY Yes	7¢	$70	150d
US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$40	167d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?	BUY Yes	5¢	$33	167d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	BUY Yes	13¢	$40	167d
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	15¢	$226	167d
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	14¢	$76	167d
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026?	BUY Yes	4¢	$175	167d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,059.98 · official $3,059.32 (match) · 11 history records