Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c7a…b077 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$191 (+6%) realized +$512 · open −$321
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%21W / 23L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$192
7 days+$347
14 days+$459
30 days+$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$213
sports 10% −$107
world 3% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.1% +6.0% 58% 58% +23.0%
≤30d 18 +5.6% -4.5% 56% 56% +21.7%
≤90d 18 +5.6% -4.5% 56% 56% +21.7%
all 44 -16.7% -24.7% 48% 43% +9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 43% +9.9%
10% -31.9% 39% -0.6%
15% -38.5% 34% -10.2%
20% -44.5% 23% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$18 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$656
Realized+$512
Unrealized−$321
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses21 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)44 / 59
History coverage135d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $150 $155 +$5 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $49 $83 +$34 (+70%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $106 $78 −$28 (-26%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $42 $76 +$34 (+79%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Yes 13¢ 4¢ $150 $52 −$98 (-65%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $51 $42 −$9 (-19%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $63 $32 −$32 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $62 $31 −$31 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Over 47¢ 10¢ $100 $21 −$79 (-79%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $51 $8 −$42 (-83%)
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $31 +$51 +165%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 23 $53 +$48 +92%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $188 +$112 +60%
France leading at halftime? AND France to win the second half? Jun 23 $214 +$126 +59%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $56 −$55 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $134 +$135 +100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $131 +$53 +41%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $14 +$11 +78%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $62 −$44 -71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $35 +$35 +101%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $207 +$97 +47%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Who will finish higher: Bortoleto or Hulkenberg? Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Mar 18 $57 −$3 -6%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Mar 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Mar 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Who will finish higher: Colapinto or Gasly? Mar 08 $6 +$3 +59%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 07 $9 +$7 +73%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Mar 03 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $7 −$2 -22%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $10 $0 +4%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $7 +$1 +19%
The Citadel Bulldogs vs. Furman Paladins Feb 23 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $7 $0 +0%
Men's Group B - Italy vs. Slovakia Feb 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Marcos Giron Feb 11 $36 +$13 +37%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Dallas Open: Terence Atmane vs Frances Tiafoe Feb 10 $50 +$28 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 1h
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $154 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 22h
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $41 22h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $41 22h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 67¢ $81 23h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 23h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 51¢ $53 30h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 56¢ $152 30h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $64 46h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $30 47h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $25 47h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $57 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2d
France leading at halftime? AND France to win the second half? BUY 62¢ $214 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 81¢ $39 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 50¢ $67 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 30¢ $36 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 26¢ $60 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 26¢ $40 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 17¢ $134 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $188 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $81 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.47 · official $654.79 (match) · 132 history records