Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9C 0x9c81…9997 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,501 (-13%) realized −$2,469 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%35W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$484per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$2,518
crypto 48% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 36 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 0% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -23.0%
10% -18.5% 0% -30.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -37.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2,518 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$2,548
Realized−$2,469
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses35 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage619d
Avg bet$484
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $884 $881 −$3 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $720 $716 −$4 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $668 $662 −$6 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 99¢ 92¢ $308 $288 −$20 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $252 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,942 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $380 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,144 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,425 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Mar 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Mar 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Mar 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Mar 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Mar 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 10 $122 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Feb 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Feb 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Feb 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Feb 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Feb 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Feb 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Feb 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 30 $12 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 30 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 30 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $551 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $10,029 −$2,518 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $668 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $884 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $308 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $720 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,942 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $380 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $252 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,144 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,425 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $70 103d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $49 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $54 103d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $69 103d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $30 122d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 122d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $56 122d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $122 122d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $21 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $31 272d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $47 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $35 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 100¢ $26 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 272d
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $12 272d
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $10 272d
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $2 272d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $3 272d
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $6 272d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,547.65 · official $2,547.65 (match) · 81 history records