Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c82…4704 crypto 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$191 (-6%) realized −$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%56W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$305
7 days−$238
14 days−$244
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -3.9% -13.1% 42% 42% -16.0%
≤30d 136 -6.0% -15.0% 41% 41% -16.2%
≤90d 137 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 41% -16.2%
all 137 -6.7% -15.6% 41% 41% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 41% -16.2%
10% -23.7% 41% -24.2%
15% -31.1% 41% -31.6%
20% -37.8% 41% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$24 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses56 / 81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage32d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$30 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$41 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$32 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$19 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$29 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$35 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$41 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$23 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$54 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$40 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$22 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$32 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $20 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $42 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $41 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $42 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $41 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $41 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $41 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $41 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records