Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c83…5a53 weather 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$196 (-1%) realized −$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%104W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$33
other 8% −$234
sports 2% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 56 -1.0% -10.4% 98% 2% -11.2%
≤90d 105 -0.5% -9.9% 99% 1% -10.2%
all 105 -0.5% -9.9% 99% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -10.2%
10% -18.6% 1% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$237 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses104 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage57d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $342 $342 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $157 $157 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $310 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $483 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $176 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $456 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $448 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on June 3? Jun 03 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $416 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $284 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $321 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 31? May 31 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 30? May 31 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 42°C on May 30? May 31 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $165 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on May 29? May 30 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C or below on May 29? May 29 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $190 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 28? May 28 $712 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $307 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $22 +$6 +29%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $157 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 26? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on May 26? May 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C on May 26? May 26 $212 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $260 −$237 -91%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $500 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $322 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $352 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 25? May 25 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 23? May 23 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $200 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $142 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $157 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $310 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $110 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $300 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $237 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $483 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $25 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $6 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $0 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.32 · official $499.32 (match) · 324 history records