Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9C 0x9c8b…0644 sports 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+3%) realized +$57 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%117W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$17
14 days−$8
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$15
other 6% −$22
weather 2% +$8
crypto 0% −$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -10.2% -18.7% 52% 50% -6.5%
≤30d 215 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 49% -7.6%
≤90d 215 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 49% -7.6%
all 215 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 49% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 49% -7.6%
10% -23.7% 44% -16.4%
15% -31.1% 36% -24.5%
20% -37.8% 22% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses117 / 98
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)215 / 219
History coverage40d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Vici Gaming 71¢ 25¢ $34 $12 −$22 (-65%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 29¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Carstensz 72¢ 40¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $46 −$1 -3%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $24 +$11 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $28 −$28 -99%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $2 −$1 -26%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$12 +116%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$7 +138%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $3 $0 -16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $36 +$10 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $43 +$6 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $32 +$11 +35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14 +$17 +123%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 −$16 -79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +94%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: cyberdingzhen vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The Internation Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $34 +$6 +17%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $26 +$17 +64%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$6 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North Americ Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Dota 2: Ignite vs Ttgame (BO3) - The International North America Open Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Dota 2: Phenomenon vs NA Last Hope (BO3) - The International North Ame Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Yellow Submarine (BO1) - The International Euro Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $2 $0 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 71¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 74¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $36 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Resilience 96¢ $36 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 65¢ $24 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 55¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 74¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 71¢ $10 5h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 63¢ $28 14h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 29¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $10 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 72¢ $10 15h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America BUY Hokori 14¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $22 23h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 97¢ $12 25h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY Estar Backs 69¢ $10 28h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $16 28h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 21¢ $1 31h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 22¢ $1 32h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 72¢ $5 32h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $7 32h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 69¢ $5 38h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 61¢ $10 38h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $5 38h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $5 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $10 38h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.26 · official $20.26 (match) · 474 history records