Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c8d…4f5c sports 367 markets active 0h ago coverage 716d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,262 (-8%) realized −$1,149 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%136W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$192est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,395
7 days−$1,522
14 days−$1,522
30 days−$1,522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$1,318
other 16% +$429
politics 9% −$633
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 337 -10.9% -19.4% 39% 37% -19.5%
≤30d 337 -10.9% -19.4% 39% 37% -19.5%
≤90d 337 -10.9% -19.4% 39% 37% -19.5%
all 348 -11.4% -19.9% 39% 36% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 36% -18.6%
10% -27.5% 35% -26.3%
15% -34.5% 32% -33.5%
20% -40.9% 29% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$36 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

716d coverage
Net worth$573
Realized−$1,149
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses136 / 212
Est. fees paid−$192
Open positions19
Markets (closed)348 / 367
History coverage716d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 54¢ 52¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Yes 50¢ 47¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals No 80¢ 73¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Bald 38¢ 36¢ $85 $82 −$3 (-4%)
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Team Bald 41¢ 38¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-9%)
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals No 85¢ 86¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Team Bald 41¢ 38¢ $33 $31 −$3 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 52¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$9 (+90%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner LGD Gaming 72¢ 99¢ $14 $20 +$5 (+38%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 49¢ 64¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+30%)
Set Handicap: Droguet (-1.5) vs Rodionov (+1.5) Droguet 37¢ 50¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+35%)
ITF Irvine: Veronica Miroshnichenko vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Kaitlyn Carnicella 31¢ 80¢ $3 $9 +$5 (+158%)
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu Ru Xi Wu 39¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Set Handicap: Ravel (-1.5) vs Gurri (+1.5) Ravel 24¢ 20¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-15%)
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs O'Connell (+1.5) OConnell 53¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Kenta Miyoshi vs. Rudy Quan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 37¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-7%)
ITF Irvine: Theadora Rabman vs Monika Ekstrand Theadora Rabman 25¢ 8¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Set Handicap: Estevez (-1.5) vs Pino (+1.5) Estevez 67¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner PlayTime 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1 +$1 +60%
Set Handicap: Assche (-1.5) vs Rincon (+1.5) Jun 19 $13 +$12 +93%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $100 +$79 +79%
Set 1 Winner: Miroshnichenko vs Carnicella Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5) Jun 19 $12 +$13 +105%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $19 +$16 +88%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 19 $15 +$12 +83%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Sergi Perez Contri vs Izan Almazan Valiente Jun 19 $9 +$4 +47%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $65 +$8 +12%
ITF Saarlouis: Pieter De Lange vs Nikolai Barsukov Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
ITF Dinard: Marie Vogt vs Mia Slama Jun 19 $9 +$4 +45%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Andrew Fenty vs Braden Shick Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
ITF San Gregorio: Beatrise Zeltina vs Natalija Senic Jun 19 $13 +$3 +19%
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Giuseppe La Vela Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Set Handicap: Stusek (-1.5) vs Guth (+1.5) Jun 19 $3 +$5 +172%
ITF Saarlouis: Yannik Kelm vs Marcel Zielinski Jun 19 $9 −$9 -99%
ITF Dinard: Tilwith Di Girolami vs Lisa Claeys Jun 19 $5 +$16 +344%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Haskovo: Lidia Encheva vs Cagla Buyukakcay Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5) Jun 19 $9 +$13 +134%
ITF Lourinha: Tiago Torres vs John Echeverria Jun 19 $8 −$7 -98%
Set Handicap: Gurri (-1.5) vs Feldbausch (+1.5) Jun 19 $4 +$11 +307%
ITF Monastir: Dominika Podhajecka vs Mariia Nozdrachova Jun 19 $6 +$35 +603%
Set Handicap: Ravel (-1.5) vs Ratti (+1.5) Jun 19 $2 +$1 +49%
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Jun 19 $9 +$12 +141%
Yelyzaveta Chainykova vs. Matilde Mariani: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 +$5 +172%
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bertola (+1.5) Jun 19 $32 +$14 +43%
Julia Adams vs. Ilay Yoruk: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 +$4 +152%
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5) Jun 19 $8 +$12 +152%
Set Handicap: Sobolieva (-1.5) vs Olmo (+1.5) Jun 19 $14 +$14 +101%
ITF Monastir: Andrea Colombo vs Pedro Rodenas Jun 19 $3 +$5 +180%
Renta Tokuda vs. Naoki Nakagawa: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 +$1 +23%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Max Purcell Jun 19 $5 +$20 +388%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Badosa (+1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mickael Kaouk vs Filiberto Fumagalli Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Alberto Lim vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Luque: Josefina Estevez vs Maria Camila Torres Murcia Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Uemura vs Noguchi Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Irvine: Bianca Molnar vs Monika Ekstrand Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Gianmarco Ferrari Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Irvine: Vignesh Gogineni vs Bryce Nakashima Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
ITF Irvine: Vit Kalina vs Ronit Karki Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
ITF Dinard: Carla Grignac vs Zoe UIrich Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Irvine: Jack Satterfield vs Spencer Johnson Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Gaeul Jang vs. Yuzuha Negishi: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Irvine: Alexis Nguyen vs Sophia Webster Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 72¢ $15 27m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 49¢ $8 45m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 49¢ $7 45m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 50¢ $10 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $44 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $6 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $144 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Set 1 Winner: Miroshnichenko vs Carnicella BUY Carnicella 67¢ $9 2h
Set Handicap: Estevez (-1.5) vs Pino (+1.5) BUY Estevez 67¢ $39 2h
Set Handicap: Estevez (-1.5) vs Pino (+1.5) BUY Estevez 67¢ $61 2h
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs O'Connell (+1.5) BUY OConnell 53¢ $3 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $101 2h
Kenta Miyoshi vs. Rudy Quan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 37¢ $3 3h
Set Handicap: Ravel (-1.5) vs Gurri (+1.5) BUY Ravel 24¢ $4 3h
ITF Saarlouis: Pieter De Lange vs Nikolai Barsukov BUY Nikolai Barsukov 78¢ $11 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $39 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $5 5h
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu BUY Ru Xi Wu 39¢ $2 5h
ITF Tulsa: Andrew Fenty vs Braden Shick BUY Braden Shick 64¢ $1 5h
ITF Tulsa: Andrew Fenty vs Braden Shick BUY Braden Shick 64¢ $7 5h
ITF Irvine: Theadora Rabman vs Monika Ekstrand BUY Theadora Rabman 25¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.38 · official $572.82 (match) · 920 history records