Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c8e…c6e4 crypto 991 markets active 21h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%411W / 725L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$549
7 days−$582
14 days−$580
30 days−$591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$293
other 1% −$10
sports 0% −$5
weather 0% −$14
tech 0% −$1
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -90.9% -91.8% 6% 6% -89.7%
≤30d 196 -87.8% -88.9% 7% 7% -88.3%
≤90d 1058 -25.6% -32.7% 35% 26% -21.2%
all 1136 -23.9% -31.2% 36% 27% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 27% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 22% -27.7%
15% -43.8% 17% -34.6%
20% -49.3% 14% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses411 / 725
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1136 / 991
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 5AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 6PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 12PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 2PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 11AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 6AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 8PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 11AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 20h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 20h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.89 · official $6.89 (match) · 3500 history records