Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
9C 0x9c8f…5500 politics 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$612per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 9 +3.5% -6.4% 22% 22% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 22% -9.7%
10% -15.4% 11% -18.3%
15% -23.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -31.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage130d
Avg bet$612
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $189 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $301 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $19 −$2 -10%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $11 +$3 +25%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $14 +$2 +18%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $804 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Feb 27 $1,239 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $1,313 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 21h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $74 27h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $178 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 67d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3 79d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $301 111d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 111d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 111d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 111d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $802 111d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $1,234 114d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $804 115d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 116d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 116d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 117d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,618 117d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,310 117d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,313 130d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,620 130d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 130d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 130d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 130d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,239 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records