Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:26:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9C 0x9c8f…2268 crypto 1637 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$5,077 (-26%) realized −$5,052 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate82%1559W / 331L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,966
7 days−$4,999
14 days−$5,201
30 days−$5,201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$391
other 9% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 533 -48.1% -53.0% 48% 1% -36.1%
≤30d 1216 -21.4% -28.9% 75% 4% -32.2%
≤90d 1890 -14.1% -22.3% 82% 3% -29.3%
all 1890 -14.1% -22.3% 82% 3% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 3% -29.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 2% -36.1%
15% -36.5% 1% -42.2%
20% -42.8% 0% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$17 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$530
Realized−$5,052
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1559 / 331
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1890 / 1637
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1890 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 97¢ 92¢ $555 $530 −$25 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 289 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$7 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -46%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$2 -177%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $43 −$61 -142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $529.88 · official $363.76 · 3500 history records