Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9C 0x9c91…6795 sports 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$636 (+6%) realized +$619 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%87W / 87L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days−$31
14 days+$65
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$306
politics 9% +$86
other 7% −$206
world 6% +$256
crypto 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +2.9% -6.9% 49% 43% -10.3%
≤30d 161 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 45% -10.5%
≤90d 174 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 44% -5.7%
all 174 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 44% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 44% -5.7%
10% -18.1% 29% -14.7%
15% -26.0% 23% -23.0%
20% -33.2% 20% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$27 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$619
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses87 / 87
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage38d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bang Si-hyuk charged in 2026? No 31¢ 46¢ $34 $51 +$17 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $603 +$227 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 +$10 +14%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $202 −$154 -76%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $134 +$16 +12%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $7 −$6 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $30 +$11 +38%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $50 +$11 +21%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $6 +$1 +20%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $92 +$28 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 +$35 +33%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $45 −$43 -95%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $80 −$8 -10%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $12 +$12 +95%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -96%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -86%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8 +$2 +24%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $11 +$29 +262%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $29 −$23 -80%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $31 +$9 +29%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $32 +$8 +26%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +123%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$6 -56%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 −$2 -56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $26 −$25 -94%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $47 +$15 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $30 +$23 +75%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$7 +128%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 +$3 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $41 −$4 -9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $83 +$47 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $86 −$2 -2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $68 −$13 -19%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $2 +$3 +109%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +17%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $829 8m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 16m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $70 48m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $603 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $48 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $202 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $134 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $13 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $2 12h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $4 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 82¢ $50 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 93¢ $7 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $6 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $92 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $143 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $107 36h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 1¢ $2 36h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 26¢ $3 36h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 26¢ $0 36h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 25¢ $41 36h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 4¢ $2 37h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $59 37h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 65¢ $40 37h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $20 37h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 55¢ $28 37h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 64¢ $11 37h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $10 37h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $24 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.15 · official $47.26 · 525 history records