Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9c93…4bac crypto 548 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (425 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,768 (+45%) realized +$7,769 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%213W / 334L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day425.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (425 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 547 -11.1% -19.5% 39% 35% -7.9%
≤30d 547 -11.1% -19.5% 39% 35% -7.9%
≤90d 547 -11.1% -19.5% 39% 35% -7.9%
all 547 -11.1% -19.5% 39% 35% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover425.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 35% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 31% -16.7%
15% -34.3% 28% -24.7%
20% -40.7% 20% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$7,769
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses213 / 334
Open positions1
Markets (closed)547 / 548
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day425.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 547 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Down 60¢ 56¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$22 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$51 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $78 −$28 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$17 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $65 −$15 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$20 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$23 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$22 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$26 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$27 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$32 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$15 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$15 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$14 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$12 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $61 −$11 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $138 +$162 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $94 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $70 −$20 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $87 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $98 +$52 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$16 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$15 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $28 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $13 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $22 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $13 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $27 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $28 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $15 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $35 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $24 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.49 · official $11.49 (match) · 3500 history records