Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9C 0x9c96…42ef weather 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$406 (+1%) realized +$183 · open +$223
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate86%219W / 37L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$31
14 days+$230
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$262
crypto 0% +$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +3.3% -6.5% 81% 25% -9.1%
≤30d 208 +0.2% -9.3% 85% 21% -9.1%
≤90d 256 +0.4% -9.2% 86% 20% -9.4%
all 256 +0.4% -9.2% 86% 20% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 20% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$55 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$1,314
Realized+$183
Unrealized+$223
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses219 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)256 / 260
History coverage41d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? No 66¢ 88¢ $553 $733 +$180 (+33%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? No 91¢ 96¢ $363 $383 +$20 (+6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? Yes 86¢ 97¢ $174 $197 +$23 (+13%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? No 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $302 +$49 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $386 +$51 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 22 $421 +$18 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 21 $81 +$11 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $87 +$13 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 20 $121 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $167 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $206 +$10 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? Jun 20 $405 −$402 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $123 +$9 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $86 +$7 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $576 +$36 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $370 −$71 -19%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 18 $717 +$183 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $194 −$1 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $60 +$16 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $9 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 18? Jun 17 $68 +$3 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $252 +$43 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $66 +$8 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $215 −$34 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $132 +$8 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $78 +$7 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? Jun 16 $429 +$40 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $208 +$12 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $848 +$166 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $202 +$19 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $88 +$12 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $29 +$6 +21%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $815 +$118 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 −$4 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $164 +$17 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $117 +$6 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $246 +$72 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $92 −$10 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $176 +$36 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $110 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 90¢ $127 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 89¢ $36 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? BUY No 66¢ $562 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 88¢ $51 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $14 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $78 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 80¢ $22 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $201 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $10 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $10 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $20 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,313.55 · official $1,313.39 (match) · 1308 history records