Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c96…5099 other 740 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$707 (+4%) realized +$644 · open +$63
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%302W / 433L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$142est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$214
14 days+$326
30 days+$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$214
sports 37% +$353
crypto 10% −$43
world 1% −$32
weather 1% −$47
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +6.2% -3.9% 42% 42% +0.4%
≤30d 124 +3.1% -6.7% 43% 43% -0.1%
≤90d 735 -4.4% -13.5% 41% 38% -7.1%
all 735 -4.4% -13.5% 41% 38% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 38% -7.1%
10% -21.8% 35% -16.0%
15% -29.4% 32% -24.1%
20% -36.3% 28% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$644
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses302 / 433
Est. fees paid−$142
Open positions2
Markets (closed)735 / 740
History coverage89d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 735 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $45 $107 +$62 (+138%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$98 +65%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$26 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $25 −$5 -18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $47 −$17 -37%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $46 −$15 -33%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $32 +$22 +69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $121 +$67 +55%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $76 +$83 +109%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $56 −$3 -5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$14 +272%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$33 -64%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $178 −$133 -75%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $76 −$14 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -96%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $8 −$3 -41%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 +$50 +89%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $56 +$48 +86%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$27 +105%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$10 +67%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $77 +$8 +11%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$12 +80%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $57 −$22 -38%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $64 −$17 -26%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$18 -71%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 +$24 +93%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$19 +124%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 +$28 +180%
Michael Olise: 3+ shots Jun 16 $8 +$9 +109%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$3 -6%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$29 -80%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $126 −$4 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $39 +$54 +140%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 +$21 +88%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$24 -30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 $0 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $35 −$10 -28%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $105 +$58 +56%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$24 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $96 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $26 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 45¢ $21 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $25 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $46 2h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 42¢ $15 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $16 3h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 46¢ $28 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 4h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 50¢ $31 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $152 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $53 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $14 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $15 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $189 4h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $43 4h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $32 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 51¢ $53 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $19 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $121 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $56 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.74 · official $202.74 (match) · 2123 history records