Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9C 0x9c97…4569 world 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL −$716 (-2%) realized −$322 · open −$394
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate64%63W / 36L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$5,905
finance 17% −$1,079
other 4% −$433
politics 1% −$147
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +50.3% +35.9% 54% 46% +8.1%
≤30d 44 +38.9% +25.7% 64% 52% +11.1%
≤90d 99 +52.2% +37.7% 64% 42% +3.5%
all 99 +52.2% +37.7% 64% 42% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.7% 42% +3.5%
10% ← realistic here +24.5% 32% -6.4%
15% +12.5% 28% -15.4%
20% +1.5% 22% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +70% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$97 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$1,232
Realized−$322
Unrealized−$394
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses63 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions13
Markets (closed)99 / 111
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$319
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 34¢ 32¢ $302 $284 −$17 (-6%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 62¢ $287 $246 −$41 (-14%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 10¢ 8¢ $219 $194 −$25 (-11%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $292 $186 −$106 (-36%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 60¢ $71 $96 +$25 (+36%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 31¢ 32¢ $87 $93 +$5 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 11¢ 10¢ $73 $70 −$3 (-5%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 24¢ 15¢ $39 $25 −$14 (-37%)
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $168 $16 −$152 (-91%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $65 $3 −$62 (-95%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 18 $312 +$12 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 18 $23 +$29 +127%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 18 $1,054 −$565 -54%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 18 $366 −$270 -74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 17 $99 −$21 -21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $60 +$139 +232%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $101 +$365 +362%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $2,040 +$329 +16%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 14 $260 −$143 -55%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $275 +$99 +36%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $417 +$1,166 +280%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $203 −$41 -20%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 08 $171 −$34 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $226 −$17 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $661 +$342 +52%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $359 +$1,044 +291%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 07 $288 −$25 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 04 $53 +$26 +48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 03 $47 +$18 +39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $112 +$154 +137%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $441 +$159 +36%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $322 +$49 +15%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $40 +$10 +26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $685 +$498 +73%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $1,098 +$557 +51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $631 +$47 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $595 +$119 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $361 +$40 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 26 $597 +$47 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 26 $333 +$408 +122%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $68 +$3 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 26 $144 +$345 +240%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 25 $86 +$124 +144%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 25 $2,028 −$298 -15%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 22 $442 −$149 -34%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $556 +$66 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $1,292 −$178 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $124 −$100 -81%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1? May 20 $735 −$113 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 6? May 20 $36 −$28 -79%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? May 17 $240 +$237 +99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $106 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $260 +$23 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $112 +$5 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 15 $898 +$158 +18%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? May 15 $252 −$227 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $162 48m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $73 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $140 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $87 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $143 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $144 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $68 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $68 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $3 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $12 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $1 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $1 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $169 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $129 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 12h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 12h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $111 23h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $10 28h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $78 28h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 28h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 92¢ $239 35h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $14 39h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 44h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 44h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 44h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 44h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 44h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,232.50 · official $1,232.50 (match) · 3500 history records