Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c98…f4f4 world 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13,729 (-3%) realized −$8,634 · open −$5,095
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate70%54W / 23L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,475per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$7,715now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,005
7 days+$1,115
14 days−$3,110
30 days+$4,137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$10,147
other 29% −$2,938
politics 2% +$190
tech 2% +$410
finance 0% +$295
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.7% -8.0% 83% 33% -4.1%
≤30d 19 +0.5% -9.1% 84% 32% -6.8%
≤90d 43 -2.9% -12.1% 77% 28% -8.2%
all 77 -10.7% -19.2% 70% 29% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 29% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 17% -19.4%
15% -34.0% 4% -27.1%
20% -40.4% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$8,242) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$998 vs −$2,651 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$7,715
Realized−$8,634
Unrealized−$5,095
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses54 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)77 / 84
History coverage149d
Avg bet$6,475
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 74¢ 78¢ $6,896 $7,294 +$398 (+6%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 50¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ $5,514 $11 −$5,502 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $9,838 +$912 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $7,710 +$390 +5%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $479 +$21 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 05 $4,464 −$4,464 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $2,750 +$239 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $30,443 +$5,157 +17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,705 +$295 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $10,400 +$2,360 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $5,169 +$457 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $7,473 +$599 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $7,000 +$500 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $10,536 +$924 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $4,817 +$657 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $4,809 +$307 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $4,534 +$233 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $24,000 −$4,241 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $800 +$135 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 10 $780 +$15 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 06 $5,000 −$159 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 06 $10,000 −$13 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 03 $12,086 +$1,224 +10%
Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses? May 01 $3,960 +$1,137 +29%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $13,117 +$573 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $18,050 +$5,937 +33%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $6,175 −$2,164 -35%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 29 $14,261 +$306 +2%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 22 $3,988 −$28 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $7,435 +$547 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 02 $7,462 −$7,462 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 02 $3,754 +$326 +9%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 02 $11,837 +$1,113 +9%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $34,085 +$7,913 +23%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 31 $19,521 −$9,700 -50%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 31 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $10,560 +$1,368 +13%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 31 $915 +$56 +6%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $651 +$49 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $11,368 +$2,944 +26%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Mar 24 $1,563 +$20 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 23 $899 +$60 +7%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $6,398 +$1,638 +26%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $12,961 +$1,011 +8%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 07 $1,074 −$525 -49%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Mar 07 $2,471 +$70 +3%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 07 $6,775 +$1,234 +18%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 05 $5,926 −$2,833 -48%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 05 $736 −$368 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $24,043 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 85¢ $638 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $9,200 10d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $208 11d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $14 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 95¢ $7,710 11d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $257 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $2,643 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $1,821 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $5,530 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $6,154 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $2,000 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $3,514 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $10,880 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $35 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $1 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $1 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 92¢ $1,327 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 92¢ $11 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 92¢ $31 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 92¢ $207 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,714.81 · official $7,714.81 (match) · 674 history records