Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c99…b13a crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$204 (-10%) realized −$204 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%27W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$200
7 days+$236
14 days+$236
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$168
other 28% −$277
sports 19% +$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 44% +4.0%
≤30d 63 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 43% +3.5%
≤90d 63 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 43% +3.5%
all 63 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 43% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 43% +3.5%
10% -19.9% 41% -6.4%
15% -27.6% 41% -15.4%
20% -34.7% 38% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$22 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses27 / 36
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage18d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$25 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$31 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$14 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$27 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$46 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$52 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$79 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$134 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$69 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$66 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$32 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$7 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$16 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$16 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$15 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$43 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 50¢ $41 4m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 60¢ $51 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $46 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $9 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $42 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $21 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records